What strategies can help close the food gap?

A truly sustainable future needs both smarter yields and smarter consumption.

Historically, feeding our growing population has hinged on boosting production levels and increasing efficiency – that is, reducing the input resources needed to produce a certain output yield.

Today, we are able to grow the same quantity of crops using only one-fourth of the land that was needed in 1961:

Land needed to produce a fixed quantity of crops

Shows improved land efficiency from 1961 to 2020. Land per crop quantity calculated by dividing arable land by the crop production index (1961 = 1).

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN – processed by Our World in Data ↗

However, over the same time period, we have expanded our agrigultural footprint by 490 million hectares – an area 1.5 times the size of India.¹

With finite land, a changing climate, and diminishing returns from improved farming techniques, feeding the future will require more than just increasing outputs.

Strategies to increase production

1. Improving crop yields

Precision agriculture, new seed varieties, optimized fertilizer use, all aim to produce more in the same space. Potential: Moderate to significant gains possible, but there are natural limits to what the land can handle.
2. Livestock & aquaculture efficiency

Advances in breeding, feed optimization, and disease control increase production levels per animal. Potential: Moderate improvements achievable, but unlikely to negate the core resource needs of livestock without comprimising animal welfare. Lab-grown meat is promising but currently extremely energy intensive.
3. Expanding into marginal lands

Attempts to begin farming on currently underutilized or challenging land. Potential: Limited as marginal lands often contain vulnerable ecosystems and lack long-term potential.

Strategies to shift consumption

1. Reducing biofuel reliance

Competition between food and fuel for land drives food prices up. Potential: Significant on specific crops (corn), less so globally.
2. Food waste reduction

Enormous volumes lost across the chain. Infrastructure and consumer shifts are vital. Potential: Significant opportunity to reduce production pressures.
3. Dietary shifts

Less meat/dairy consumption frees up land and eases pressure. Potential: Massive, but social change is complex.

It's not "either/or"

Technological breakthroughs will undeniably contribute, but a combination of increased efficiency with thoughtful, smarter consumption that will feed our future sustainably. What we decide to eat will shape what we produce and what landscapes and water we save.